As you all probably know, Al Gore challenged the United States two days ago to end our dependence on foreign oil within a decade. Whether or not we reach Gore's target, the Middle East's days as the energy breadbasket of the planet are numbered-in two or three decades, the US will probably be getting the majority of its energy from domestic renewable sources such as solar and wind. How this will happen, and its impact on US and western society, has been discussed ad nauseum both here and on other internet forums. What recieves much less attention is the impact this will have on the Middle East itself. **Disclamer** I'm a second-year college student. Though I'm specializing in Middle Eastern history and hope to eventually be an expert in the subject, I'm not now. The material for this diary comes from what I've gathered through news sources and outside reading.**
The most important thing to understand is the the Middle East is not all swimming in oil. The Gulf region (Saudi Arabia, Oman, Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, United Arab Emirates, and Yemen) has the richest and highest quality oil deposits, which extend up into southern Iraq. Northern Iraq contains a rich oil field, as does southeastern Iran (most of Iran's oil is fairly close to Iraq-indeed, one of Saddam's main reasons for launching the Iran-Iraq war was to put this oil into "better" hands, namely his own). Syria and North Africa (especially Algeria and Libya) have some oil, and Egypt has a rather small field in the Sinai peninsula. Other countries, such as Jordan, Turkey, Israel, and Lebanon, have none.
The biggest loser by far, then, in the post-oil Middle East is the Gulf. The entire economies of most Gulf countries are built on petroleum. Most unskilled, and plenty of skilled, labor is provided by guest workers, brought in mostly form South Asia and the oil-poor Arab states, with a few from the West and other regions (only 19% of UAE residents are citizens of that country-the rest are guest workers). Citizens of Gulf states are supported by an extensive welfare system that allows even an unemployed person to live a moderately comfortable lifestyle. All this is payed for by-you guessed it-you and me, when we pump gas into our cars. Though most Gulf countries have invested in Western stock markets and generally tried to find alternative incomes, the end of oil will put this system under intense strain, and very likely cause it to collapse. Saudi Arabia in particular should be watched-the Wahhabi religious establishment is very powerful in that country, and is certainly sympathetic to the idea of Islamic government. Its not hard to imagine the Saudi monarchy, crippled by the loss of its main source of income, being overthrown in a religious revolution. This isn't inevitable by any means-but its a distinct possibility.
The other Gulf countries will be in slightly better shape-the UAE, for one, has in Dubai a financial and tourist center that does not get most of its income directly from oil. The UAE government could try keep Dubai alive as a financial center/tax haven and playground for the rich-a Monaco of the Middle East-whether they have any success probably depends on whether Saudi Arabia remains stable. But the loss of oil-a majority of the region's wealth-will certainly cause the economic center of gravity to shift away from the Gulf. Monaco and Liechtenstein are not giants in European politics-more bit players. There position is what awaits the Gulf states-under a best-case scenario.
Outside the Gulf, the shock will be less drastic, but still severe. Iran is likely to emerge as the major economic power in the region-although it currently gets much of its income from oil, and the end of oil as the lifebood of the world economy will be a major shock, one that might just topple the somewhat shakey rule of the mullahs. Still, with a large, indigenous workforce, significant natural resources besides oil, and a more diversified economy, it will be in a much better position to recover than its oil-dependent neighbors. Towards the Mediterranean, the same holds true for countries like Syria, Jordan, and Egypt-though their economies, already burdened with high unemployment, will have to cope with the return of the significant portion of their workforce that works in the Gulf and will be out of their jobs.
Further afield from the Middle East, the Gulf countries, especially Saudi Arabia, fund a constellation of Islamic charities and religious institutions that have gained a fairly large presence in most Muslim countries. These groups have been instrumental in widening the influence of their backer's religious views, and have contributed to the rather conservative swing Islam has taken in recent decades. With the end of their endless supply of oil money, the power these organizations relative to more Liberal Muslim grassroots groups will decrease greatly, and Islamic discourse will much likely take on a much more liberal tone-to the relief of many of us on DKos and elsewhere.
Well, those are my thoughts on what has been a somewhat underdiscussed subject. Feel free to add your own ideas in the comments section-this is a very complex subject, and I certainly don't pretend I've covered the half of it.